Friday, October 27, 2006

It's all about the percentages.


The show Deal or No Deal has swept the nation over the last few months. When I first heard about it I was not impressed. Apparently the new and improved millennium version of Howie Mandell hosts the show where contestants pick one of 26 cases with a specific amount inside, ranging from one penny to one million dollars. The contestant is then asked to reveal the remaining cases in stages. Each stage the contestant (and the mysterious banker who lives in a shadowy booth overlooking the game-show) is left to speculate how much money is in their own case. The banker periodically offers up a cash exchange for the still "unknown" amount in their case. The contestant must either accept or decline "The Deal."

Pardon the pun but "big deal!" Who cares? It's a game of chance and not skill. At least in Who Wants To Be A Millionaire you have to demonstrate some sort of knowledge. I've surfed by the show many times and NEVER felt compelled to stop. For some reason I decided to see what all the fuss was about the other night and I stopped to watch for a few minutes. I'm here to say that I was wrong. This show is worth watching for three reasons.

One: It's all about the percentages. I thought there was no skill involved. There is actually a modicum of skill required. Unfortunately it's some pretty complex math. When the banker makes an offer to the contestant to buy the case, it is based on the mathematical probability that the case the contestant "owns" has more or less in it than the offer. As far as I have seen no contestant has attempted to do the math to determine if the offer being made is the mathematical best deal to take. All they do is go with their gut and continue to go forward until the banker makes a deal that just "feels good" to them. Which leads me to the second reason why this show is worth watching.

Two: The contestants are so wheels off crazy it is as close to watching a reality TV show train wreck without watching a reality TV show. I haven't seen much of this show, but what I have seen is ridiculous. Some of these contestants strut around the stage like they are staring in their own movie. Like they have waited their entire lives to be on TV and this is their moment to impress everybody with their boisterous personality. Vomit! Still, it's great watching their bravado get squashed when the banker starts offering them less and less money because they chose to keep moving forward with opening cases when they should have stopped while they were ahead.

Three: Check out the website and see for yourself.
  • Deal or No Deal
  • 3 comments:

    Dagromm said...

    I've never watched it either, but I've really been enthralled with Vas or No Vas. I also caught a little bit of 1 vs 100. I would dominate that, because I know that I am statistically smarter than 85% of Americans. The probvlem is I'm not a big enough ass to ever make it on the show. I'm not much for jumping up and down when I win something.

    Nate said...

    I gotta agree. Its a shame when the biggest game show on TV involves the lottery.

    Q said...

    I wonder if they came up with this concept after visiting a county fair? You know that game where you stick your hand into a hole that is covered by a piece of paper that is numbered and then there are prizes inside, possibly. It is the confirmation of the dumbing down og America. Thanks G-Dub.